Millcreek, Utah 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

274
FXUS65 KSLC 260416
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1016 PM MDT Mon May 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty winds will develop over portions of western Utah Tuesday,
  strongest over west central and southwest Utah, where gusts to
  50 mph can be expected. Gusty and erratic winds could also
  develop with showers and thunderstorms tomorrow, with the best
  coverage over the higher terrain east of I-15.

- Gusty winds will become more widespread over central and
  southern Utah on Wednesday, bringing the potential for critical
  fire weather conditions where fuels are dry. The threat of
  critical fire weather conditions will continue into Thursday for
  the valleys of eastern Utah.

- The trough over the Great Basin will cross Utah and southwest
  Wyoming late Thursday into Friday bringing a return of scattered
  showers and thunderstorms to northern Utah and bringing
  temperatures back down to near seasonal normals across the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Utah and southwest Wyoming are under a southerly
flow this evening on the back side of a ridge moving into the
central United States. In this flow, moisture and instability
continue to be drawn northward, which is allowing some showers and
thunderstorms to continue, primarily for areas east of I-15. With
waves continuing to filter north tonight into tomorrow morning,
some convection will continue through the overnight hours.

A trough currently over the Pacific Northwest will drop into the
Great Basin by Thursday afternoon. Initially, the associated
moisture and instability will remain west of the area. However,
the resultant increase in the pressure gradient will result in
some strong, gusty winds over portions of western Utah. Have
added a Wind Advisory for southwest Utah in this package to
accompany the one already issued for western Millard and Juab
counties, as the strongest winds will be concentrated in this
area, where latest guidance indicates a 50-70% chance of wind
gusts to 50 mph. Weighed adding the west desert at this time, but
while it would not be surprising to see isolated gusts in excess
of 40 mph, think these winds will not have the duration to warrant
headlines.

As the broad low wobbles eastward, the extent of the gusty winds
will spread eastward across central and southern Utah. Gusts
overall will be less strong than those expected Tuesday for
western Utah, however, the position of the low will allow the
southerly flow to advect drier air into southern and eastern Utah,
and these two factors will combine to create the potential for
critical fire weather conditions on Wednesday, with the potential
continuing into Thursday for eastern Utah. The drier air moving in
will also likely suppress the threat of convection for Wednesday
into much of Thursday.

Guidance looks to be coming into better agreement about the
eventual movement of the low, with most members indicating it will
move across Utah and southwest Wyoming late Thursday into Friday.
There will be enough instability for some showers and
thunderstorms, primarily for northern Utah, but moisture will be a
limiting factor, as will the weakening of the storm system as it
opens up. A perhaps more noticeable impact will be on
temperatures, which are likely to drop to values much closer to
seasonal normals by Friday afternoon.

Behind the exiting trough, most guidance indicates a drying and
warming trend for the upcoming weekend into day seven.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions will persist for the KSLC terminal
through the period. Southerly winds will persist throughout the
entire period, increasing overnight and gusting through the day
tomorrow. Moisture will move into the airspace around sunrise with
most of it staying to the east, but there will be a 30% chance of
light showers across the terminal through mid morning. Isolated
convection (30% chance) will develop tomorrow afternoon.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will persist
for the entire airspace through the period. Winds will stay
southerly and increase overnight and stay gusty through the day
tomorrow. Moisture will move up through the eastern half of the
airspace overnight with isolated convection developing during the
day tomorrow. Erratic gusty outflow winds and frequent lightning
will be possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Strong southerly winds are expected to begin
developing on Tuesday afternoon, primarily over the western third
of Utah. Wind gusts in excess of 30 mph pairing with relative
humidity around 13-17% will create areas of near-critical fire
weather conditions, with isolated critical fire weather conditions
developing where fuels are critically dry in southwest and west-
central Utah. These strong winds will shift into the eastern Utah
valleys on Wednesday and Thursday (mainly in central and southern
Utah) and will pair with relative humidity around 10-15% to create
the potential for critical fire weather conditions for multiple
days. There is generally high confidence that critical fire
weather conditions will develop across western Emery and Carbon
Counties, with moderate confidence in similar conditions
developing in eastern Garfield and Kane Counties. After Thursday,
a cooling and moistening trend is expected into Friday with
conditions warming and drying from Saturday forward.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for UTZ484-489-494-498.

     Wind Advisory from noon Tuesday to midnight MDT Tuesday night
     for UTZ115-122.

WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...Traphagan
AVIATION...Mahan

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity